“To understand the present, learn from the past.”
By David H. Huynh
In 2007, a few cracks appeared in the walls of finance. A pair of Bear Stearns hedge funds collapsed — and most people shrugged. A year later, the world was burning.
Today, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase who helped rescue Bear Stearns back then, is warning again. Two small collapses — a sub-prime auto lender (Tricolor Holdings) and an auto-parts supplier (First Brands) — may be the first “cockroaches” scurrying out from the dark corners of a seemingly solid economy.
“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more… Everyone should be forewarned.”
He’s not talking about insects. He’s talking about hidden leverage, opaque loans, and fragile balance sheets — the unseen Yin within today’s Yang of booming markets.
⚖️ The Yin–Yang of Finance
In the Tao of Quantum, every boom (Yang ☀️) contains the seed of its own correction (Yin 🌑). Markets expand with optimism, innovation, and easy credit — until they overheat. Then fear replaces greed, liquidity freezes, and the cycle turns again.
The crash of 1929 birthed new guardrails: the SEC, the FDIC, and strict banking separations like Glass–Steagall. After the subprime crisis of 2008, we built Dodd–Frank, stress tests, and higher capital rules to prevent déjà vu.
🐂 “Business as Usual” — Until the Next Fall
In Vietnamese, we say: “Mất bò mới lo làm chuồng.” Only after losing the cow do we build the barn. English has a cousin: “Closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.”
After every catastrophe, humanity rebuilds — wiser, for a while. Then prosperity returns, barriers feel heavy, and regulators loosen the rules “to free business.” Little by little, the walls thin, and the next lesson begins forming in silence.
Some guardrails have been eased since 2008, while a great deal of credit and leverage has migrated into shadow banking/private credit — areas less visible to regulators. The details differ from 1929 or 2008, but the pattern rhymes.
🪞 Dimon’s Antenna and the Mirror of History
Dimon’s “antenna goes up” because he has seen this movie before: easy credit to risky borrowers, complex off-balance-sheet financing, and faith that this time is different.
Like Warren Buffett said:
“When the tide recedes, we see who’s been swimming naked.”
Today’s private-credit markets and non-bank lenders are large and interconnected. They may not trigger a crash tomorrow, but the possibility of contagion grows with every hidden exposure — the true “cockroaches” in the dark.
🌊 The Tao of Quantum Reflection
To understand the present, learn from the past. History doesn’t repeat exactly — but it rhymes. The Yang of expansion always drifts toward the Yin of correction. Yet within every Yin there is Yang — opportunity reborn from collapse.
The task for the wise investor and mindful citizen is not to fear the cycle but to see it clearly — to preserve capital during the storm so it may blossom again in the calm.
Be water. Flow with the wave, not against it. That is the Tao of Quantum Investing.
Source:
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/16/business/jamie-dimon-us-economy-cockroaches
