From the negotiation perspective of Donald Trump—famous for his book “The Art of the Deal”—the tariff agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam can be seen as a textbook example of how a superpower applies pressure and reshapes global economic order, in which Vietnam finds itself both with opportunities and risks.
“Starting High – Pretending to Compromise”: The Traditional Seller’s Trick
Trump’s demand for a retaliatory tariff of up to 46%, later “reduced” to 20%, made Vietnam feel like it had dodged a major blow. But this is a classic bargaining strategy—exactly like the way sellers inflate prices in traditional Vietnamese markets: a product worth 50 dong is quoted at 120, and when the buyer negotiates it down to 60 (50%), the seller still profits.
Vietnamese people are familiar with this bargaining style, so it’s easy to feel like they’ve “won.” But in reality, Vietnam was the one that conceded the most—if we look at the actual terms of the deal.
Deadline Pressure: Trump Needed a Political “Show”
Vietnam was one of the few countries to conclude negotiations before July 9. Trump fully exploited this outcome to flaunt a “foreign policy victory.”
Vietnam was turned into a “model example” to pressure other countries—a political win for Trump, but not necessarily a substantive win for Vietnam, especially when examining the commitments made.
"0% Tariffs" – A Knockout Blow to Domestic Industry
The commitment to reduce tariffs to 0% on many U.S. imports could seriously harm Vietnam’s fledgling industries, such as electric vehicles (VinFast), pharmaceuticals, and processed foods.
Usually, developing nations selectively open their markets—maintaining high tariffs on industries that need protection, while lowering tariffs for sectors needing investment. Vietnam, however, nearly opened its market entirely, potentially “suffocating” domestic businesses on home soil.
You Can’t Claim Victory Without Comparing to Competitors
Vietnam should wait to see the U.S. tariff rates applied to its trade rivals like Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Laos before declaring a “victory.” If those countries—Vietnam’s direct competitors in textiles, agriculture, and wood exports—receive similar or lower tariffs, Vietnam’s advantage would diminish.
Declaring victory without a comprehensive comparison is unfounded and risky in the long term.
The Dark Side of "Made in Vietnam" – But Also a Strategic Opportunity
The U.S. announced it will impose tariffs up to 40% on “Made in Vietnam” goods if found to actually originate from China or other countries trying to avoid U.S. tariffs. This is a clear warning against “disguised transshipment,” forcing Vietnam to tighten rules of origin management.
However, the positive side is: many Chinese (or Korean, in Samsung's case) companies may be forced to truly invest and manufacture in Vietnam to legally use the “Made in Vietnam” label. This could:
Increase FDI into Vietnam
Create jobs
Transfer manufacturing technology
Boost real GDP growth—if Vietnam properly manages supply chains and origin rules
In short, it’s a double-edged sword: well-managed, it brings dual benefits; poorly managed, it risks U.S. sanctions and damage to trade credibility.
“Shaking the Tree to Scare the Monkeys” – Weak Response to Pressure
Compared to China, which is experienced and capable of countermeasures, Vietnam remains weak in negotiation posture and resources. Against an aggressive, intimidating counterpart like Trump, Vietnam tends to cave too early, lacking long-term strategic defense.
“Greasing the Diplomacy” with the Trump Brand – “Clever” and Timely
Vietnam moved quickly and smartly to use the Trump brand for diplomatic gain by:
- Fast-tracking a license for Trump Organization to partner with Kinh bac City Group to build a golf resort and hotel in Hung Yen (Tô Lâm’s hometown)
Investment scale: ~$1.5 billion (among 3–4 long-term projects), over 990 hectares (~2,000 acres)
Groundbreaking in May 2025 with Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính, Eric Trump, and local officials in attendance
Approving the Trump Tower project in Thu Thiem, Ho Chi Minh City – at least 60 stories tall, ~$1 billion investment, the only Trump-branded tower in Southeast Asia
Eric Trump visited the site and met with HCMC authorities during his trip
According to DW and SCMP, the Hung Yen golf project was fast-tracked “ahead of normal procedures” as part of a plan to win Trump’s favor during intense negotiations
AP News confirmed the Vietnamese government approved the $1.5 billion project via a document signed by PM Phạm Minh Chính—part of a gesture of goodwill toward Trump
Vietnam Opens Doors to Starlink – A Wise Tech and Political Move
Vietnam also allowed Elon Musk’s Starlink to operate starting in 2025, as reported by TechCrunch, Nikkei Asia, and Reuters. This is notable because:
Elon Musk was politically and publicly aligned with Donald Trump, especially on platform X (formerly Twitter), where he openly supports conservative, anti-tax views
Starlink struggled to get licensed in many countries with tight information controls—but Vietnam opened up quickly, even ahead of Thailand and Indonesia
Starlink’s satellite internet will benefit remote areas—but the decision is more political than technical
Rare Earths – A Strategic Advantage and Investment Promise for the U.S.
In the trade war with China, rare earths became a geopolitical weapon. Vietnam quickly tied this into its negotiations:
Under Trump, the U.S. lowered tariffs on Vietnamese goods to 20% while imposing 40% on Chinese goods rerouted through Vietnam
More importantly, Vietnam promised to allow U.S. investment and extraction of minerals—especially rare earths—to leverage its strategic potential
China had previously used rare earth export restrictions as a retaliatory tool during U.S. trade tensions
Conclusion
The Vietnam–U.S. trade agreement under Trump isn't just about tariffs—it's a game of power and strategy. The U.S. used pressure tactics to achieve its goals, while Vietnam responded with a series of flexible, timely moves: rolling out the red carpet for the Trump Organization, Starlink, and rare earth pledges. These actions go beyond economics—they are political messages showing Vietnam’s willingness to cooperate in a new geopolitical chessboard.
However, long-term results will depend on Vietnam’s ability to manage risks, avoid dependency, and protect national credibility. This is a “real-world lesson” for Vietnam in upgrading its negotiation power and industrial policy in a globally competitive era.
Don’t rush to declare victory—stay alert and work to build lasting strength.
Update (12 July 2025)
Vietnam thought it had agreed on an 11% U.S. tariff; Trump abruptly declared it at 20%, or 40% for re‑exported Chinese‑origin goods during a July 2 call with Vietnam’s General Secretary Tô Lâm. The unilateral announcement surprised Hanoi and caused confusion, as no formal agreement had been signed. Trump also stated that U.S. exports to Vietnam would enter duty‑free. Analysts warn this unpredictability undermines U.S. credibility and could threaten future trade negotiations, as Vietnam and other countries recalibrate their trust in Washington (worldview.stratfor.com).
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