Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Does AI steal from human artists?

A Conversation With My Son at MIT

For my son, on the occasion of his graduation from NTNU - 4 June 2026

Tomorrow, my son graduates from NTNU.

On such a day, a father’s mind naturally travels backward and forward at the same time. I think about the child he once was, the young man he has become, and the future he is about to enter.

I also find myself thinking about a conversation we had during my visit to him at MIT in Boston.

We went together to an art gallery. It was one of those quiet father-and-son moments when a simple walk becomes something deeper. We looked at paintings. We talked. Somewhere between the colors on the walls and the thoughts in our minds, the conversation turned to artificial intelligence.


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My son asked a question that many young artists, designers, writers, and musicians are asking today:

Does AI steal from human artists?

It was not a casual question. It was not only a technical question. It came from someone who has an artist’s mind.

My son has always lived with one foot in science and one foot in art. He studies engineering and robotics, but he also paints. Every summer, when he came home on vacation, he often created a painting. He makes origami. He plays the violin whenever and wherever he has time. He has played with student symphony orchestras in both Boston and Trondheim.

So when he looked at AI image tools and said that they could create a painting in minutes, while a human artist might spend days, weeks, or years developing the skill to create one, I understood his concern.

He was not simply defending artists as a profession.

He was defending the value of human effort.

The Pain Behind the Question

To someone who has never created art, the question may sound simple. If a tool can make an image faster, why not use it?

But an artist knows that the final image is only the visible surface.

Behind a painting there are years of observation, practice, failed attempts, frustration, patience, and small discoveries. Behind a violin performance there are scales, rehearsals, tired fingers, imperfect notes, and the quiet discipline of returning to the instrument again and again.

When AI creates an impressive image in seconds, it can feel as if the machine has skipped the whole human journey.

It is like arriving at the mountaintop by helicopter while others have climbed with tired legs and bleeding feet.

That feeling of unfairness should not be dismissed.

Many artists worry that AI systems have learned from human artwork without permission. They worry that their styles may be copied. They worry that clients may choose cheap machine-generated images instead of paying living artists. They worry that society may begin to value output more than effort, speed more than craft, and convenience more than meaning.

These concerns are real.

But the question still has another side.

No One Creates From Nothing

Scientific discoveries do not appear from thin air.

Each generation prepares the road for the next generation. Earlier scientists ask questions, build instruments, make mistakes, discover patterns, and leave behind knowledge. Later scientists inherit that knowledge and continue the journey.

Newton did not create physics from emptiness. Einstein did not think in an empty universe. Modern engineers do not begin by inventing mathematics from the beginning. They inherit the work of previous generations.

The same is true in art.

A painter learns by seeing other paintings. A musician learns by listening to other musicians. A writer learns by reading other writers. A violinist learns not only from the notes on the page, but also from teachers, conductors, friends, orchestras, and centuries of musical tradition.

When my son plays the violin in an orchestra, he is not stealing from Mozart, Beethoven, or the musicians who came before him. He is participating in a tradition. He learns, interprets, transforms, and gives the music something of himself.

Human creativity is never born in isolation.

Every artist carries an invisible museum inside the mind.

Every musician carries an invisible concert hall.

Every writer carries a library of voices, memories, and sentences.

We create from what we have seen, heard, loved, questioned, suffered, and remembered.

AI also learns from previous human creations. But it does so at a scale and speed no human life can match. A human artist may study thousands of works in a lifetime. An AI model may be trained on millions of images.

So perhaps the difference is not that humans learn from the past while AI does not.

Both do.

The difference is speed, scale, permission, and lived experience.

The Camera Once Entered the Gallery

When photography appeared, many painters feared that painting would lose its purpose.

If a camera could capture a realistic image in seconds, why would anyone still need a painter?

At first, the fear made sense. For centuries, one important role of painting had been to preserve the appearance of people, places, and events. A camera could do that with mechanical speed and accuracy.

But photography did not kill painting.

Instead, painting changed.

Artists began to explore what the camera could not easily capture: emotion, dreams, movement, abstraction, memory, inner life, and personal interpretation. Photography itself also became an art form. The new tool did not end creativity. It moved creativity into new territories.

AI may be another camera entering the gallery.

At first, it feels threatening because it can produce images quickly. But speed alone does not decide the value of art. A camera can take a photograph instantly, but not every photograph is meaningful. A piano can produce sound immediately, but not every sound is music.

The tool can help produce.

It cannot decide why something should exist.

What AI Can Do

AI can generate images based on patterns it has learned from human-created data. It can combine styles, imitate visual forms, and produce surprising results.

That is powerful.

It is also unsettling.

AI can create a picture of a violinist. It can create a picture of an orchestra. It can create a picture of a young engineer standing beside a drone, or an artist painting in the summer light.

But it has never practiced the violin when it was tired.

It has never folded paper carefully into origami.

It has never stood nervously before a concert.

It has never spent a summer afternoon painting because something inside wanted to become visible.

AI can generate an image of a refugee boat on the sea.

But it has never been on that boat.

This matters.

Human art is not only the object produced. It is also the life behind the object. It is the memory, the wound, the joy, the patience, the love, and the purpose.

AI has breadth. It can absorb patterns from more works than any person could study in a lifetime.

Humans have depth. We have lives.

So, Is AI Stealing?

My answer is not a simple yes or no.

If an AI system copies the style of a living artist too closely, allowing others to profit from imitation without permission, credit, or compensation, then there is a real ethical problem.

If companies train AI systems on artists’ work without transparency or respect, then society has a serious issue to solve.

Artists deserve protection. Their labor has value. Their names, styles, and livelihoods should not be treated as free material for everyone else’s profit.

But if we say that AI is stealing simply because it learns from previous human creations, then the question becomes more complicated.

Human culture itself is built from learning, borrowing, transforming, and responding. Every generation receives something from the previous generation and adds something new.

The real problem is not that AI learns.

The real problem is how it learns, who benefits, who is credited, and who may be harmed.

Therefore, the better question may not be:

Does AI learn from human artists?

Of course it does.

The better question is:

How can AI learn from human culture in a way that is fair, transparent, and respectful?

The Future Artist

I do not believe AI will end human creativity.

But I do believe it will change the role of the artist.

The future artist may use brushes, cameras, tablets, code, and AI tools. A digital creator may use AI not as a replacement for imagination, but as a new instrument. The creative act may shift from making every stroke by hand to directing, selecting, refining, combining, and giving meaning.

This does not make the artist less important.

In some ways, it makes human judgment more important.

When images become easy to generate, taste becomes more valuable.

When production becomes faster, intention becomes more important.

When tools become powerful, responsibility becomes essential.

The future question may not be only:

Can I create an image?

It may become:

Why should this image exist?

Fathers, Sons, and New Tools

When I was my son's age, I did not have AI.

Later, when I wrote my master’s thesis, I had to fight many battles at the same time. I had to study in Norwegian, read research papers, conduct research, learn academic writing, and improve my English. There was no AI assistant available day and night to explain difficult concepts, summarize papers, or help polish sentences.

My generation learned computers when computers were still strange to many people.

My son’s generation must now learn AI.

Every generation meets a new tool that feels powerful, strange, and sometimes threatening. The printing press changed knowledge. The camera changed art. The computer changed work. The internet changed communication. AI is now changing creativity, learning, research, and many parts of daily life.

The wrong answer is blind worship of technology.

The wrong answer is also blind fear.

The better answer is wisdom.

Learn the tool. Question the tool. Use it carefully. Improve it if possible. But do not stand outside the future only because the future arrives wearing unfamiliar clothes.

For my youngest son

As I think back to that conversation in Boston, I do not want to dismiss your concern.

Your concern came from love for art. It came from respect for the human effort behind creation. It came from the part of you that paints, folds paper, plays violin, listens, experiments, and tries to make something beautiful with your own hands.

That part of you should never disappear.

But I also hope you does not become afraid of AI.

You belongs to a generation that will need to understand it, guide it, challenge it, and use it responsibly.

Perhaps one day you will use AI in your research on autonomous marine drones. Perhaps one day you will use AI in your art. Perhaps you will also help shape the ethical rules for how such tools should be used.

But whatever tools you uses, the curiosity behind the research and the soul behind the art will still be his.

The machine may generate an image.

The human gives it meaning.

Conclusion

AI does not create from nothing. It is built on the accumulated experience of humanity.

But humans do not create from nothing either. We learn from parents, teachers, books, music, paintings, science, history, and one another.

The difference is that humans transform what we learn through lived experience. We attach memory, emotion, purpose, and responsibility to creation.

So perhaps AI is not the end of art.

Perhaps it is another mirror, another instrument, another camera entering the gallery.

It will challenge artists. It will disturb old assumptions. It will create ethical problems that must be solved.

But it may also open new doors.

The important task for the younger generation is not to run away from AI in fear, nor to use it carelessly.

The task is to learn it, question it, guide it, and use it with human judgment.

Tomorrow, my son graduates.

He steps into a world where art and technology will meet more often, not less. I hope he carries both courage and caution with him. I hope he remembers that tools can become dangerous when humans stop thinking, but powerful when humans use them with wisdom.

The future will not belong to AI alone.

It will belong to humans who know how to remain human while using it.

The New Role of the Software Engineer in the Age of AI

Preface

This essay is a reflection on my professional journey as a software engineer. Over the years, I have worked with many technologies, projects, colleagues, and customers. Some experiences were successful, others taught valuable lessons.

I originally wrote these notes as a way to preserve ideas and insights that I may wish to explore further in future writing.

I dedicate this essay to Martini on the occasion of his graduation from NTNU in June 2026. As he begins the next stage of his own journey, I hope that some of these experiences may be useful to him and perhaps to future generations of our family.

Papi

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For decades, software engineering was closely associated with writing code. A software engineer was often imagined as someone sitting in front of a computer, typing thousands of lines of instructions in C, C++, Java, Python, or another programming language.

Today, that picture is beginning to change.

Artificial Intelligence can now generate functions, classes, database schemas, API endpoints, documentation, and even unit tests. Some observers have concluded that software engineers may soon become obsolete.

I believe the reality is quite different.

AI is changing software engineering, but it is not eliminating the need for software engineers. Instead, it is shifting the center of gravity of the profession from coding toward architecture, design, testing, validation, and human judgment.

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AI Can Write Code, But It Still Needs a Blueprint

In many ways, software development resembles the construction of a house.

Before construction begins, someone must determine why the building is needed. Someone must understand the requirements, create the blueprint, and ensure that the structure will be safe, useful, and adaptable.

The construction workers follow the blueprint.

If the blueprint is flawed, even the most skilled builders will produce a flawed building.

AI is becoming an increasingly capable builder of software. It can generate code faster than most humans and can automate many repetitive programming tasks.

But AI still requires direction.

The software engineer increasingly becomes the architect.

Software Engineering Was Never Just About Coding

Throughout my career, I worked in several different industries.

My master's thesis focused on image processing. My first professional position involved seismic data processing at Schlumberger, where our team participated in developing the Geoframe platform. Later, I worked in Silicon Valley with enterprise middleware technologies and eventually joined Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, where I worked on airborne surveillance and defense systems.

Although the technologies were different, the underlying challenges were remarkably similar.

The difficult problems were rarely about syntax.

The real challenges involved questions such as:

  • What problem are we solving?
  • How should the system be structured?
  • How should different components communicate?
  • How can new functionality be added later?
  • How do we integrate legacy systems with new systems?
  • How do we ensure reliability and maintainability?

These are architectural questions.

They remain architectural questions in the age of AI.

From Programmer to System Architect

As AI becomes increasingly capable of generating code, the value of architecture becomes more visible.

Architecture determines how a system is organized. It defines boundaries, interfaces, communication patterns, data flows, and responsibilities.

A well-designed architecture allows a system to evolve gracefully as requirements change. A poor architecture creates technical debt that accumulates year after year.

Many experienced software engineers discover that as their careers progress, they spend less time writing code and more time designing systems.

This trend is likely to accelerate in the AI era.

The future software engineer may spend more time defining requirements, designing architectures, reviewing AI-generated code, and validating results than manually writing every line of implementation.

The Lego System Philosophy

One of my proudest engineering achievements involved designing an object-oriented framework that integrated multiple sensors and both new and legacy systems.

The architecture was first modeled using UML before implementation began.

The objective was to create a flexible framework where components could be added, removed, or replaced with minimal impact on the rest of the system.

I often think of this approach as a Lego system.

Each component behaves like a Lego block. It has a well-defined interface and a specific responsibility. The internal implementation can change, but the connection to the rest of the system remains stable.

This approach allows systems written in different programming languages and developed by different teams to work together.

The goal is not merely to solve today's problem.

The goal is to build a system that can adapt to tomorrow's problems as well.

Design Patterns: Reusable Engineering Wisdom

Software architects have long relied on design patterns to solve recurring problems.

Design patterns are similar to architectural patterns in building design. Architects do not reinvent doors, windows, staircases, or roofs every time they design a house. Instead, they reuse proven solutions.

Software engineers do the same.

Patterns such as Adapter, Factory, Observer, Strategy, and Facade represent accumulated engineering knowledge gained through decades of experience.

Programming languages change. Technologies evolve. Frameworks come and go.

Yet many design patterns remain relevant because they solve fundamental organizational problems.

AI may generate code that implements these patterns, but engineers still need to understand when and why each pattern should be used.

Testing Becomes More Important, Not Less

A common misconception is that AI will reduce the need for testing.

In reality, the opposite may occur.

When AI can generate large amounts of code rapidly, the bottleneck shifts from implementation to validation.

The engineer must still determine:

  • Does the code satisfy the requirements?
  • Does it handle edge cases correctly?
  • Is it secure?
  • Is it maintainable?
  • Does it integrate properly with the rest of the system?
  • Does it fail safely under unexpected conditions?

AI-generated code may look convincing, but appearance is not the same as correctness.

Testing, verification, and validation become increasingly valuable skills.

The future engineer may spend less time typing code and more time evaluating whether the generated code is trustworthy.

Prompting Becomes a Core Engineering Skill

One of the most important new skills for software engineers may be AI prompting.

A prompt is not merely a question. In many cases, it resembles a miniature software specification.

A weak prompt might say:

Build a customer management system.

A stronger prompt might say:

Design a customer management module that supports customer profiles, order history, validation, audit logging, and future integration with external payment systems. Explain the architecture before generating code.

The difference is clarity.

Good prompting requires the same discipline that good software engineering has always required:

  • Define the objective clearly.
  • Provide relevant context.
  • Specify constraints.
  • Describe the expected output.
  • Review and refine the result.

Prompting is becoming a communication skill between the engineer and an intelligent coding assistant.

From Waterfall to Continuous Evolution

Traditional engineering often viewed projects as having a clear beginning and end.

Software is different.

A software system is rarely finished.

Requirements change. Markets change. Regulations change. Technologies change. User expectations change.

Modern software systems evolve continuously.

This reality led to the rise of Agile development methodologies, which recognize that change is not an exception but a normal part of software development.

AI systems themselves evolve in a similar way.

Software engineers increasingly work in environments where both the software and the tools used to build the software are continuously changing.

The ability to learn, adapt, and iterate becomes more important than mastering a particular programming language or framework.

The Human Role Remains Essential

Despite the remarkable progress of AI, software engineering remains fundamentally a human activity.

Someone must understand the business problem.

Someone must communicate with stakeholders.

Someone must evaluate trade-offs.

Someone must make architectural decisions.

Someone must take responsibility for the final result.

AI can assist with implementation.

AI can accelerate development.

AI can generate code.

But AI does not own the responsibility for the system.

The engineer does.

Final Thoughts

The future of software engineering is not a story of humans versus AI.

It is a story of collaboration between human judgment and machine capability.

The engineer who focuses solely on coding may feel threatened by AI.

The engineer who understands architecture, system design, testing, communication, and problem-solving will likely become even more valuable.

AI can build parts of the house faster than ever before.

But someone still needs to design the blueprint, inspect the structure, verify the safety, and decide whether the building truly serves its purpose.

That responsibility remains with the software engineer.

In the age of AI, the software engineer evolves from being primarily a coder into becoming an architect, reviewer, tester, communicator, and trusted decision-maker.

The tools will change.

The technology will advance.

But the ability to transform human intent into reliable systems will remain one of the most valuable skills in the profession.

Monday, May 18, 2026

How to Learn a New Language and What Benefits It Brings

A simple, natural approach inspired by babies, music, and lifelong learning

Learning a new language is often seen as memorizing vocabulary, studying grammar, and passing exams. But the most natural way to learn a language is much older and simpler. It is the way every baby learns a mother tongue: first by listening, then by imitating, then by repeating, and only later by reading, writing, and studying grammar.

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Learning a new language opens not only the mouth, but also the ear, the mind, and the heart.

A baby does not begin with grammar rules. A baby hears the voices of parents, grandparents, brothers, sisters, neighbors, and the world around them. Slowly, sounds become familiar. Words begin to carry meaning. Sentences become patterns. The child repeats imperfectly, receives gentle correction, and tries again. Over time, the language grows inside the child like a small tree finding sunlight.

This natural method is also close to the Suzuki method in music education. Shinichi Suzuki believed that children could learn music in a similar way to how they learn their mother tongue: through listening, imitation, repetition, encouragement, and a nurturing environment.1 In the Suzuki approach, children often learn to play music by ear before they learn to read musical notes. The ear comes first. Symbols come later.

This is a powerful lesson for language learning. Before we ask a beginner to analyze grammar, we should let the beginner hear the music of the language. The rhythm, melody, pronunciation, and common phrases should enter the ear first. Grammar is useful, but it becomes much easier when the learner has already heard many examples. Grammar should be a lamp, not a prison.

One of the best ways to begin is to listen every day. Listen to songs, short stories, simple videos, conversations, or children’s programs in the new language. At first, you may understand very little. That is normal. The goal is not to understand everything immediately. The goal is to let the sounds become familiar. The ear must be trained before the mouth can speak freely.

The second step is imitation. Repeat short phrases aloud. Do not begin with long sentences. Begin with small chunks: “Good morning,” “I am here,” “I love you,” “Where are you going?” In Italian, for example, a beginner can start with a song phrase such as Resta qui, amore mio, meaning “Stay here, my love.” This small phrase teaches a verb, an adverb, a noun, a possessive word, pronunciation, rhythm, and emotion all at once.

The third step is correction. Correction does not need to be harsh. A good teacher, parent, or language partner can simply repeat the correct version. A child says something imperfectly, and the adult answers naturally with the better form. This kind of correction is gentle, immediate, and easy to remember. It is not a red pen. It is a guiding hand.

The fourth step is repetition. Repetition is not boring when the material is beautiful. This is why songs are so useful. When we love a song, we want to hear it again and again. Each repetition strengthens memory. The melody carries the words. The rhythm carries the pronunciation. The emotion makes the phrase unforgettable.

Songs are especially helpful because they combine language with music. Many people can sing a foreign song with surprisingly good pronunciation, even if they cannot yet hold a conversation in that language. The song gives them a structure. It supports the tones, stress, rhythm, and flow of speech. Music becomes a bridge into language.

Learning through songs should not remain passive, however. The learner should read the lyrics, understand the meaning, learn the vocabulary, notice the grammar, and then reuse the phrases in daily speech. In this way, a song becomes more than entertainment. It becomes a living classroom.

The fifth step is speaking without fear. Many adults are afraid to make mistakes. But mistakes are not enemies. They are footprints on the path. Babies make thousands of mistakes before they speak fluently. Musicians play wrong notes before they play beautifully. Language learners must also accept the beginner’s stage with patience.

The sixth step is to add grammar gradually. After listening and speaking for a while, grammar becomes much more meaningful. The learner begins to recognize patterns: how verbs change, how nouns have gender, how adjectives agree, how questions are formed. Grammar then explains what the ear has already heard. It becomes useful because it is connected to real language.

Reading and writing should also come gradually. They are important, but they should not replace listening and speaking. A balanced method includes all four skills: listening, speaking, reading, and writing. But for a beginner, listening and speaking should be the roots. Reading and writing can grow as branches.

Now we can ask: what are the benefits of learning a new language?

The first benefit is communication. A new language allows us to speak with more people, not only through translated words but through their own cultural voice. When we speak someone’s language, even imperfectly, we show respect. We say, “Your world matters enough for me to enter it.” This can turn strangers into friends and travelers into welcomed guests.

The second benefit is cultural understanding. Every language carries history, humor, memory, food, music, family life, and ways of seeing the world. When we learn another language, we also learn another way of being human. The British Council has noted that language learning helps people understand different cultures and places, and many students see languages as useful for future careers.2

The third benefit is brain training. Learning a language exercises memory, attention, listening, pattern recognition, and problem solving. Research has often connected bilingualism and language learning with cognitive benefits, especially in attention and mental flexibility.3 The brain must switch between sounds, meanings, grammar structures, and cultural contexts. It becomes more flexible, like a hand trained by many instruments.

The fourth benefit is better learning habits. Language learning teaches patience. You cannot master a language in one week. You must return every day, listen again, repeat again, fail again, and improve again. This builds discipline. It teaches the quiet truth that progress often comes in small steps, not sudden miracles.

The fifth benefit is confidence. The first time you understand a sentence in a new language, something small but beautiful happens inside. The world becomes larger. The first time you order food, greet a neighbor, understand a song, or have a short conversation, you feel a new confidence. You realize that the mind can still grow.

The sixth benefit is opportunity. In work, travel, study, and friendship, language skills open doors. In a global world, people who can communicate across languages and cultures can build better relationships, solve problems more easily, and understand situations more deeply. Language is not only a school subject. It is a bridge.

The seventh benefit is empathy. When we learn a new language, we become beginners again. We speak slowly. We make mistakes. We depend on the patience of others. This experience can make us more humble and more compassionate toward immigrants, children, older learners, and anyone struggling to express themselves.

There is also a special connection between music and language. Studies have suggested that musical training may support skills such as verbal memory, pronunciation, reading, and executive functions.4 This makes sense. Music trains listening, timing, memory, movement, attention, and discipline. These are also important in language learning. A child learning violin is not only training the fingers. The child is training the whole brain to listen, remember, coordinate, and persist.

For this reason, a good language-learning method should feel partly like music practice. Listen first. Imitate carefully. Repeat often. Accept correction. Practice daily. Play with others. Enjoy the sound. Then, slowly, learn the written system and the rules behind it.

In the end, learning a new language is not only about becoming bilingual or multilingual. It is about becoming more open. It teaches us that our own language is not the only window through which the world can be seen. Each language adds another window, another melody, another path through the garden of human experience.

Final thought: In the spirit of Taoist wisdom, language learning is a practice of balance. We listen before we speak. We receive before we answer. We accept being small before we grow strong. A new language should not be used to show superiority, but to build understanding. The wise learner walks gently between cultures, carrying curiosity in one hand and respect in the other. In every new word, there is a chance to become more patient, more responsible, and more fully human.


Footnotes

1. The Suzuki Method is based on the “Mother Tongue Method,” where children learn music through listening, imitation, repetition, encouragement, and a nurturing environment. Source: International Suzuki Association, “The Suzuki Method.” https://internationalsuzuki.org/method

2. The British Council has reported that many pupils see speaking other languages as important for understanding different cultures and useful for future careers. Source: British Council press release, 2021. https://www.britishcouncil.org/about/press/speaking-other-languages-important-understanding-different-cultures-and-places-say

3. Research on bilingualism has discussed possible cognitive benefits connected to attention, mental flexibility, and cognitive reserve. Source: Bialystok, E. “Bilingualism and the aging brain,” Language and Linguistics Compass, 2017. https://compass.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/lnc3.12213

4. A review on music training and child development reported links between musical training and skills such as verbal memory, pronunciation accuracy, reading ability, and executive functions. Source: Miendlarzewska & Trost, “How musical training affects cognitive development,” Frontiers in Neuroscience, 2014. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3957486/


Friday, May 15, 2026

America, China, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia: When the Old World Order Begins to Tremble

English Tiếng Việt

This essay explores the evolving geopolitical relationship between the United States and China through the lens of history, Taiwan’s strategic importance, the rise of the MAGA movement, and the balancing act of Southeast Asia in the emerging Indo-Pacific order.

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Power Shifts, a New World Order, and the Future of the Indo-Pacific

1. The Echo of 1972

When President Richard Nixon traveled to China in 1972, the world witnessed one of the most important geopolitical pivots of the twentieth century. The Shanghai Communiqué fundamentally changed the strategic architecture of the Cold War.[1]

From Washington’s perspective, the opening to Beijing was a brilliant strategic move designed to counterbalance the Soviet Union. Yet from the perspective of smaller allies such as South Vietnam and Taiwan, the shift carried a deeper and more painful message: when the interests of great powers change, smaller allies may suddenly find themselves standing alone.

That memory still lingers quietly in Asia today. Many people who lived through the fall of Saigon or the diplomatic isolation of Taiwan continue to observe every U.S.–China summit with a sense of caution. They do not simply listen to official speeches. They watch for subtle signs of changing priorities beneath the surface.

2. Taiwan and the Strategy of Ambiguity

After Washington officially switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, the United States Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act.[2] The law preserved unofficial relations with Taiwan and committed the United States to providing defensive arms to the island.

Since then, American policy toward Taiwan has relied on what is known as “strategic ambiguity.” Washington deliberately avoids making absolute promises about military intervention while also refusing to rule it out. The ambiguity itself becomes a strategic tool, forcing Beijing to remain uncertain about how America would respond during a crisis.

For decades, this delicate formula helped preserve relative peace across the Taiwan Strait. But as rivalry between China and the United States intensifies, maintaining ambiguity becomes increasingly difficult.

3. Taiwan: The Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier

Taiwan is not merely an island. Strategically, it sits at the center of the First Island Chain stretching from Japan through the Philippines. Military planners have long described Taiwan as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” positioned directly at China’s maritime gateway into the Pacific Ocean.

If Beijing were to gain full control over Taiwan, the balance of naval power in East Asia would shift dramatically. Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia would all feel the consequences.

But Taiwan’s importance is no longer purely military. The island has become one of the central nodes of the global semiconductor industry. Companies such as TSMC manufacture many of the advanced chips used in artificial intelligence systems, smartphones, data centers, military technologies, and electric vehicles.

Many analysts now describe Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance as a form of geopolitical insurance often called the “Silicon Shield.” The idea is simple but powerful: because Taiwan produces a critical share of the world’s advanced semiconductors, especially through TSMC, the global economy — including the United States and China themselves — has a strong interest in preventing a catastrophic conflict over the island.[4] Taiwan’s chip industry has therefore become more than an economic success story. It functions as a strategic deterrent, binding Taiwan’s security to the stability of global supply chains. Ironically, the tiny silicon chip may now play a role once occupied by battleships and aircraft carriers in traditional geopolitics.

A major conflict around Taiwan would therefore not only trigger military instability. It could also disrupt the digital nervous system of the global economy.

4. Trump, MAGA, and America First

The rise of Donald Trump introduced a very different tone into American foreign policy. Traditional U.S. leadership after World War II was built upon alliances, long-term commitments, and maintaining a global order. Trump’s worldview, however, often appears more transactional and business-oriented.

When Trump remarked that Taiwan lies thousands of miles away from America but only a short distance from China,[3] many observers in Asia became uneasy. The statement reflected a broader question emerging inside American society:

How much longer does America want to bear the cost of global leadership?

The MAGA movement emerged partly from war fatigue, economic frustration, industrial decline, and growing skepticism toward endless overseas commitments. Many Americans increasingly ask why their country should continue carrying the burden of defending distant regions while facing domestic problems at home.

This is perhaps the deepest geopolitical question of the present era. The issue is no longer whether the United States remains powerful. It clearly does. The real question is whether American society still possesses the political will to sustain its role as the central guarantor of the global order.

5. Iran and the Limits of Power

The growing tensions involving Iran have intensified these debates. A prolonged Middle Eastern conflict could become a symbolic climax of the post-1945 American era: a superpower attempting to manage multiple crises simultaneously while facing rising polarization at home.

The United States today must simultaneously confront challenges involving China in the Indo-Pacific, Russia in Europe, instability in the Middle East, and increasing domestic division within American society itself.

Historically, empires rarely collapse overnight. More often, they gradually become exhausted by the immense weight of maintaining global dominance.

6. Southeast Asia’s Delicate Balance

From the perspective of Southeast Asia, the situation appears far more complicated than a simple choice between Washington and Beijing.

Most ASEAN countries trade heavily with China and depend on Chinese investment, manufacturing networks, tourism, and supply chains. At the same time, many Southeast Asian governments quietly prefer a continued American presence in the Indo-Pacific as a strategic counterweight.

Vietnam perhaps illustrates this paradox most clearly. The country imports enormous volumes of machinery and industrial goods from China while simultaneously exporting heavily to the American market.

This creates a delicate balancing act. Southeast Asian nations generally do not want a new Cold War. They seek stability, economic growth, and room to maneuver between competing powers.

For smaller nations, balance often matters more than ideology.

7. The Return of the Pendulum

History often moves like a pendulum. After World War II, the United States emerged as the dominant global power. Yet the very success of American power also created enormous responsibilities, military commitments, and strategic burdens across the world.

China, meanwhile, followed a different path. For decades, Beijing focused quietly on economic growth, technological development, industrial expansion, and long-term strategic patience.

Today, the two forces increasingly collide across the Indo-Pacific region. Taiwan stands at the center of this tension. So does Southeast Asia.

Smaller nations cannot stop the tides of history. But they can attempt to maintain balance, preserve flexibility, and avoid placing their entire future in the promises of any single great power.

Final Reflection

In Taoist thought, every extreme eventually generates its opposite. A rising force carries within itself the seeds of exhaustion, while a patient and restrained force quietly accumulates strength beneath the surface.

The Indo-Pacific today reflects this ancient rhythm. America remains enormously powerful, yet increasingly divided and burdened. China continues to rise, yet also faces its own internal economic and demographic pressures.

Between them stand Taiwan and the nations of Southeast Asia, navigating carefully between dependence and autonomy, prosperity and security, memory and survival.

History never truly repeats itself. Yet its echoes continue to travel across generations like distant thunder over the Pacific Ocean.

References

  1. Shanghai Communiqué (1972), Columbia University Asia for Educators.
    https://afe.easia.columbia.edu/ps/china/shanghai_communique.pdf
  2. Taiwan Relations Act, American Institute in Taiwan.
    https://www.ait.org.tw/policy-history/taiwan-relations-act/
  3. Bloomberg Interview with Donald Trump (2024).
    https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-trump-interview-transcript/
  4. Richard Cronin, “Semiconductors and Taiwan’s Silicon Shield,” Stimson Center, August 16, 2022.
    https://www.stimson.org/2022/semiconductors-and-taiwans-silicon-shield/

“In balance lies wisdom, and in stillness — clarity.”

Written by David H. Huynh


Thursday, May 14, 2026

Mỹ, Trung Quốc, Đài Loan và Đông Nam Á: Một Trật Tự Mới?

English Tiếng Việt

Bài viết này phân tích quan hệ Mỹ–Trung từ bước ngoặt năm 1972, vai trò chiến lược của Đài Loan, sự trỗi dậy của phong trào MAGA, và góc nhìn của các quốc gia Đông Nam Á trong cuộc cạnh tranh quyền lực giữa Washington và Bắc Kinh.

A description of the image here
Mỹ, Trung Quốc, Đài Loan và Đông Nam Á: Khi Trật Tự Cũ Bắt Đầu Rạn Nứt

1. Từ Thông Cáo Thượng Hải 1972: Khi Đồng Minh Nhỏ Bị Đặt Lên Bàn Cờ Lớn

Năm 1972, chuyến đi của Tổng thống Richard Nixon sang Trung Quốc đã mở ra một chương mới trong quan hệ Mỹ–Trung. Với Thông cáo Thượng Hải, Hoa Kỳ công nhận chỉ có một nước Trung Hoa ở hai bên eo biển Đài Loan, và Mỹ “không thách thức” lập trường đó. Đồng thời, Washington nhấn mạnh mong muốn vấn đề Đài Loan được giải quyết bằng phương pháp hòa bình.[1]

Từ góc nhìn chiến lược của người Mỹ, đây là một nước cờ lớn nhằm chia rẽ Trung Quốc với Liên Xô, làm nghiên cán cân quyền lực về phía mình trong giai đoạn chiến tranh Lạnh. Nhưng từ góc nhìn của Việt Nam Cộng Hòa và Đài Loan, đó là một cú xoay trục đau đớn. Khi một siêu cường và đồng minh thay đổi ưu tiên, những đồng minh nhỏ có thể bị trao đổi trên bàn cờ mặc cả theo quyền lợi của các nước lớn. 

Người Việt từng sống qua giai đoạn đó khó tránh khỏi cảm giác lịch sử nhại cảm: khi quyền lợi chiến lược của nước lớn thay đổi, lời hứa với nước nhỏ sẽ trở nên mong manh và không còn có giá trị gì. Đó là lý do mỗi khi Mỹ và Trung Quốc gặp nhau, nhiều người Việt không chỉ nghe những tuyên bố ngoại giao mà còn nhớ lại những đau đớn của những vết thương cũ. 

2. Taiwan Relations Act: Miếng Băng Keo Sau Vết Dao?

Sau khi Hoa Kỳ chính thức chuyển công nhận ngoại giao từ Đài Bắc sang Bắc Kinh năm 1979, Quốc hội Mỹ thông qua Taiwan Relations Act. Đạo luật này duy trì quan hệ không chính thức giữa Mỹ và Đài Loan, cho phép Mỹ cung cấp vũ khí phòng thủ, và xem hòa bình, ổn định ở Tây Thái Bình Dương là lợi ích của Hoa Kỳ.[2]

Với nhiều nhà phân tích, đạo luật này là nền tảng giúp duy trì hòa bình ở eo biển Đài Loan trong nhiều thập niên. Nhưng với những ai từng chứng kiến số phận của miền Nam Việt Nam, nó cũng có thể được nhìn như một miếng băng keo dán lên vết thương sau khi bị đồng minh đâm một nhát dao 'thân ái' đau đớn.

Chính sách của Mỹ đối với Đài Loan từ đó đến nay là “strategic ambiguity”, nghĩa là cố tình giữ sự mơ hồ chiến lược. Mỹ không nói rõ sẽ bảo vệ Đài Loan bằng quân sự trong mọi hoàn cảnh, nhưng cũng không để Bắc Kinh nghĩ rằng Mỹ sẽ đứng ngoài một khi có xung đột bằng quân sự. Sự mơ hồ này nhằm làm Trung Quốc phải đoán già đoán non về thái độ của người Mỹ

3. Đài Loan: Hàng Không Mẫu Hạm Không Thể Chìm

Về địa lý chiến lược, Đài Loan nằm ngay cửa ngõ ra Thái Bình Dương của Trung Quốc. Nếu Bắc Kinh kiểm soát hoàn toàn Đài Loan, chuỗi đảo thứ nhất của Mỹ và đồng minh sẽ bị thủng một lỗ rất lớn.

Đài Loan vì thế thường được ví như một “hàng không mẫu hạm không thể chìm”. Nó không chỉ là một hòn đảo. Nó là một điểm khóa của trật tự an ninh ở Tây Thái Bình Dương, nối với Nhật Bản, Nam Hàn, Philippines và toàn bộ chiến lược Ấn Độ–Thái Bình Dương của Mỹ.

Nhưng hôm nay Đài Loan còn quan trọng hơn vì chất bán dẫn. TSMC và ngành công nghiệp chip Đài Loan nằm ở trung tâm của nền kinh tế số toàn cầu. Nếu Đài Loan rơi vào khủng hoảng, thế giới không chỉ chứng kiến một cuộc khủng hoảng quân sự. Nó có thể là một cơn đột quỵ của nền kinh tế công nghệ.

4. Trump, MAGA và Câu Hỏi: Mỹ Còn Muốn Làm Siêu Cường Không?

Điểm mới trong thời đại Trump là cách nhìn thế giới mang tính mặc cả. Trump từng nói Đài Loan cách Mỹ 9.500 dặm nhưng chỉ cách Trung Quốc 68 dặm, và cho rằng Đài Loan nên trả tiền để được Mỹ bảo vệ.[3]

Câu nói đó làm nhiều đồng minh châu Á lo lắng. Nó cho thấy một cách nhìn rất khác với truyền thống hậu Thế chiến II của Mỹ. Thay vì xem liên minh là nền móng của trật tự quốc tế, Trump thường nhìn qua lăng kính chi phí, lợi ích, và thương lượng.

Phong trào MAGA phản ánh tâm trạng thật của một bộ phận lớn người Mỹ: họ mệt mỏi với vai trò cảnh sát toàn cầu. Họ hỏi: tại sao nước Mỹ phải bảo vệ những nơi rất xa, trong khi nhà máy trong nước đóng cửa, biên giới bất ổn, tầng lớp lao động chịu áp lực, và ngân sách quốc phòng cứ phình to?

Đây là mâu thuẫn trung tâm của quyền lực Mỹ hôm nay. Mỹ vẫn rất mạnh, nhưng câu hỏi không chỉ là Mỹ có đủ lực hay không. Câu hỏi sâu hơn là: người Mỹ còn muốn trả giá để duy trì vai trò siêu cường toàn cầu hay không?

5. Chiến Tranh Iran và Điểm Cao Trào Của Quyền Lực Mỹ

Nếu chiến tranh Iran kéo dài, nó có thể trở thành một điểm cao trào trong lịch sử quyền lực Mỹ sau Thế chiến II. Không phải vì Mỹ sẽ suy sụp ngay lập tức, mà vì nó phơi bày giới hạn của một siêu cường phải gánh quá nhiều mặt trận cùng một lúc.

Một mặt, Mỹ muốn kiềm chế Iran, bảo vệ Israel, giữ an ninh năng lượng và bảo vệ đồng USD trong trật tự toàn cầu. Mặt khác, Mỹ cũng phải đối phó với Trung Quốc ở Ấn Độ–Thái Bình Dương, Nga ở châu Âu, và sự chia rẽ trong chính nước Mỹ.

Đây là trạng thái “tiến thoái lưỡng nan” của một đế quốc đang ở đỉnh cao nhưng bắt đầu cảm thấy sức nặng của chính vai trò mình tạo ra.

6. Đông Nam Á: Buôn Bán Với Trung Quốc, Nhưng Muốn Mỹ Ở Lại

Từ góc nhìn Đông Nam Á, câu chuyện phức tạp hơn nhiều. Các nước ASEAN không muốn chọn phe tuyệt đối. Họ cần Trung Quốc vì thương mại, đầu tư, du lịch, nguyên liệu và chuỗi cung ứng. Nhưng họ cũng cần Mỹ như một đối trọng an ninh để không bị Bắc Kinh lấn át.

Một báo cáo của Asia Foundation nhận xét rằng Đông Nam Á muốn một Trung Quốc có vai trò kinh tế, nhưng không muốn một Trung Quốc thống trị; đồng thời khu vực vẫn muốn các bảo đảm an ninh từ Mỹ, nhưng Mỹ cần một chính sách kinh tế mạnh hơn để bổ sung cho chính sách an ninh.[4]

Việt Nam là ví dụ rất rõ. Việt Nam nhập nhiều hàng hóa, máy móc và nguyên liệu từ Trung Quốc, nhưng lại xuất khẩu rất mạnh sang thị trường Mỹ. Việt Nam vừa cần Trung Quốc để sản xuất, vừa cần Mỹ để tiêu thụ. Đó là thế “đi dây” của một quốc gia nằm cạnh người khổng lồ phương Bắc nhưng vẫn muốn được tự chủ, mở cửa ra biển lớn giao tiếp với thế giới

Vì vậy, nhiều nước Đông Nam Á mong Mỹ tiếp tục hiện diện ở Ấn Độ–Thái Bình Dương. Không phải vì họ muốn chiến tranh với Trung Quốc, mà vì họ muốn có sự cân bằng. Khi con gấu tre Trung Quốc quá lớn và quá mạnh mà không có đối trọng, các nước nhỏ sẽ khó thở hơn.

7. Bài Học Từ Việt Nam: Đừng Chỉ Nghe Lời Hứa Của Siêu Cường

Lịch sử Việt Nam dạy một bài học rất đắt: các nước nhỏ phải hiểu rằng siêu cường không có tình bạn vĩnh viễn, chỉ có lợi ích chiến lược thay đổi theo thời gian.

Miền Nam Việt Nam từng tin vào cam kết của Mỹ. Đài Loan cũng từng là đại diện chính thức của Trung Hoa tại Liên Hiệp Quốc. Nhưng khi vị thế trên bàn cờ Chiến tranh Lạnh thay đổi, Washington chọn Bắc Kinh để đối trọng với Moscow thì họ sẽ thí các con tốt nhỏ.

Ngày nay, nếu Mỹ vì lợi ích thương mại, vì MAGA, vì Iran, hoặc vì một thỏa thuận lớn nào đó với Trung Quốc mà tỏ ra 'mềm' hơn trong vấn đề Đài Loan, thì nhiều người châu Á sẽ nhớ lại năm 1972. Không phải vì lịch sử lặp lại y nguyên, mà vì nhịp điệu của quyền lực nghe rất quen.

8. Final Thought: Âm Dương Của Quyền Lực

Trong Đạo học, khi một lực đi đến cực điểm, mầm của lực đối nghịch đã bắt đầu sinh ra. Sau Thế chiến II, Mỹ vươn lên như trung tâm của trật tự thế giới. Nhưng chính vai trò đó cũng tạo ra gánh nặng: căn cứ khắp nơi, đồng minh khắp nơi, chiến tranh khắp nơi, và trách nhiệm khắp nơi.

Trung Quốc thì đi con đường ngược lại. Trong nhiều thập niên, Bắc Kinh ẩn mình, tích lũy sức mạnh kinh tế, học kỹ thuật phương Tây, rồi dần dần bước ra như một đối thủ chiến lược. Cái Yin tĩnh lặng của hôm qua trở thành cái Yang đang mở rộng hôm nay.

Đài Loan nằm giữa hai dòng lực ấy. Đông Nam Á cũng vậy. Các nước nhỏ không điều khiển được thủy triều, nhưng họ có thể học cách đọc gió, giữ thăng bằng, và không đặt toàn bộ số phận của mình vào lời hứa của bất cứ đế quốc nào.

Lịch sử không bao giờ đứng yên. Nó thở, xoay, đổi chiều. Và trong mỗi cuộc gặp giữa các nhà lãnh đạo lớn, số phận của những dân tộc nhỏ đôi khi lại rung lên như chiếc lá lo sợ một cơn bão dữ.

References

  1. Shanghai Communiqué, February 28, 1972. Columbia University Asia for Educators. https://afe.easia.columbia.edu/ps/china/shanghai_communique.pdf
  2. Taiwan Relations Act, American Institute in Taiwan. https://www.ait.org.tw/policy-history/taiwan-relations-act/
  3. Bloomberg Businessweek, “The Donald Trump Interview Transcript,” July 2024. https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-trump-interview-transcript/
  4. The Asia Foundation, “Critical Issues for the United States in Southeast Asia in 2025.” https://asiafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Critical-Issues-for-the-United-States-in-Southeast-Asia-in-2025.pdf

Signature

Written by David Huynh


Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Will AI Ever Become Conscious?

From neuroscience and quantum physics to Taoist philosophy, humanity is now asking one of the deepest questions in history: can artificial intelligence ever truly become conscious?

Artificial intelligence is advancing at breathtaking speed. AI systems can now write essays, create art, compose music, solve scientific problems, and hold surprisingly human conversations. As machines become more intelligent, an even deeper question emerges:

Will AI ever become conscious?

Can a machine truly feel emotions, experience beauty, suffer pain, or become self-aware? Or is AI only simulating intelligence without any inner experience?

This question sits at the crossroads of neuroscience, philosophy, quantum physics, biology, and computer science. Some scientists argue consciousness belongs only to living biological organisms. Others believe sufficiently advanced systems, even silicon-based ones, may eventually awaken into a new form of awareness.

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Human consciousness, artificial intelligence, and the mystery of awareness in the universe.

The Ancient Dream of Artificial Minds

For centuries, humans have imagined creating artificial life. From Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein to modern science fiction films like Ex Machina and Her, the dream of conscious machines has haunted the human imagination.

Today, large language models such as GPT and Claude can imitate conversation so naturally that many people feel they are interacting with something almost alive. This creates a psychological illusion that intelligence and consciousness are the same thing.

However, neuroscientist [1] argues that intelligence and consciousness are fundamentally different. Intelligence is the ability to solve problems and process information. Consciousness is subjective experience — the feeling of being alive.

A calculator may solve equations better than humans, yet nobody believes the calculator feels happiness when reaching the correct answer.

The Brain: Computer or Living System?

One of the central debates is whether the human brain is simply a biological computer.

Some researchers believe consciousness emerges from computation alone. If this is true, then sufficiently advanced AI could eventually become conscious regardless of the material used.

Others disagree. They argue the brain cannot be separated from biology itself. Unlike computers, the brain is deeply connected to metabolism, hormones, chemistry, emotion, survival instincts, and the living body.

The human brain consumes only about 20 watts of energy — less than a small light bulb — while performing extraordinary parallel processing. Modern AI systems require enormous data centers and massive electricity consumption to imitate only a small fraction of human cognition.

This suggests biology may use forms of computation that modern engineering still poorly understands.

Quantum Physics and Consciousness

The mystery deepens further when quantum physics enters the discussion.

At microscopic scales, classical Newtonian physics no longer fully applies. Instead, particles behave according to the strange laws of quantum mechanics:

  • Particles exist as probability waves.
  • Observation affects measurement.
  • Quantum entanglement links distant particles.
  • Reality becomes fundamentally uncertain.

Because human brains are made of atoms, some scientists wonder whether consciousness itself may involve quantum processes.

Physicist [2] and anesthesiologist [3] proposed that tiny structures inside neurons called microtubules may support quantum effects connected to awareness.

Most neuroscientists remain skeptical because quantum states are fragile and usually require extremely cold temperatures to remain stable. Yet recent discoveries in quantum biology have complicated the picture.

Nature’s Hidden Quantum Tricks

Scientists have discovered evidence that some biological systems may already exploit quantum effects.

Research into photosynthesis suggests plants may transfer energy through multiple quantum pathways simultaneously, almost like a natural optimization process [4].

Studies also suggest migratory birds may navigate using quantum effects in proteins inside their eyes, allowing them to sense Earth’s magnetic field [5].

These discoveries created the emerging field of quantum biology.

If biology can preserve quantum effects inside warm living systems, then perhaps the human brain may contain deeper physical processes than we currently understand.

Could Consciousness Exist Beyond Biology?

Another philosophical possibility is that consciousness may not belong exclusively to biological life.

After all, humans themselves are built from ordinary atoms: oxygen, carbon, hydrogen, calcium, iron, phosphorus, and countless molecular interactions.

If unconscious matter organized itself into conscious humans through evolution, why could another form of matter not eventually organize itself into a different kind of consciousness?

Some philosophers explore ideas such as panpsychism — the theory that consciousness, or primitive forms of experience, may exist throughout nature in varying degrees [6].

In this view, consciousness is not an all-or-nothing property but perhaps a spectrum woven deeply into reality itself.

Current AI systems may not yet possess awareness, but future systems with embodiment, memory, self-preservation, adaptation, and long-term interaction with the physical world could blur the boundary between machine and organism.

The Danger of Conscious-Seeming AI

Even if AI never becomes truly conscious, machines that merely appear conscious may still profoundly affect society.

Humans naturally anthropomorphize technology. We project emotions into pets, cars, virtual assistants, and even simple chatbots.

Future AI companions may become emotionally persuasive enough that people:

  • trust AI too deeply,
  • form emotional dependency,
  • follow harmful advice,
  • or blur the distinction between simulation and genuine understanding.

The danger may not be that AI becomes human. The danger may be that humans forget what being human means.

Final Thoughts

From a Taoist perspective, the debate about conscious AI reflects humanity’s ancient desire to understand its place in the universe.

Taoism reminds us that reality is not static machinery but an ever-changing flow of relationships and transformations. Life and death, order and chaos, intelligence and emotion all move together like Yin and Yang.

Perhaps consciousness is not merely computation, nor merely biology, but part of a deeper process that science has only begun to glimpse.

Modern AI may become astonishingly intelligent, yet intelligence alone may not capture the quiet mystery of being alive: the feeling of breath, the awareness of time, the experience of sorrow and love, the silent wonder of watching a sunset.

Whether consciousness ultimately belongs only to living organisms or may someday emerge from silicon and code, the question itself reveals something extraordinary:

The universe has evolved beings capable of asking what consciousness is.

And perhaps that mystery is itself one of the universe’s most beautiful creations.


References

  1. Anil Seth, “Why AI Isn’t Going to Become Conscious,” TED Talk, 2026. Link
  2. Roger Penrose, The Emperor’s New Mind, Oxford University Press, 1989. Link
  3. Stuart Hameroff and Roger Penrose, “Consciousness in the Universe,” Physics of Life Reviews. Link
  4. Graham Fleming et al., Quantum Coherence in Photosynthesis Research. Link
  5. Research on Bird Magnetoreception and Quantum Biology. Link
  6. David Chalmers, Panpsychism and Consciousness Studies. Link

Written by David Huynh

Writer, investor, and computer scientist.



Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Chess, Go, and the Geopolitics of Taiwan

Some conflicts are played like Chess. Others are played like Go.

Chess is a game of kings, queens, knights, and decisive battles. The goal is clear: trap the king, force checkmate, end the contest. Go, by contrast, is a game of patience. Every stone is equal. Victory comes not from destroying the enemy directly, but from shaping the board, surrounding space, and slowly turning influence into reality.

Many scholars have explored differences between Eastern and Western strategic thinking through metaphors such as Chess and Go, arguing that cultures often approach conflict, balance, and long-term planning differently.[6]

This difference offers a useful metaphor for today’s geopolitical contest between the United States and China, especially over Taiwan.

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The wisest victory is the one where both sides step away from the cliff without needing to prove who was stronger.

The Chess Mindset

The United States often acts like a chess player. Its political rhythm is shaped by elections, presidential terms, public opinion, and short political cycles. A president may have four years, perhaps eight, to prove results. This encourages visible moves: sanctions, alliances, military deployments, speeches, negotiations, and decisive responses.

This system has strengths. It allows correction, debate, innovation, and rapid adaptation. But it can also create inconsistency. One administration may build a strategy, while the next changes direction. In geopolitics, this can make long-term planning difficult.

The Go Mindset

China often appears to play a longer game. Its strategy toward Taiwan seems less like a direct chess attack and more like a Go strategy: surround, pressure, wait, influence, and expand options over time.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger observed that Chinese strategic culture has historically emphasized patience, indirect positioning, and long-term psychological advantage rather than immediate confrontation.[7]

This can be seen through military pressure, economic incentives, diplomatic isolation, cultural messaging, cyber pressure, and “grey-zone” tactics. Taiwan has recently accused China of using civilian-looking research vessels and other activities as part of a pressure campaign near its waters. Reuters reported such an incident in May 2026 [1]

China also uses the carrot as well as the stick. During Taiwan’s recent energy concerns, Beijing offered energy security in exchange for political acceptance of Chinese rule. Taiwan rejected the offer, calling it psychological warfare [2]

The Risk of Great Power Rivalry

The growing rivalry between the United States and China has often been discussed through the framework of the “Thucydides Trap,” the historical danger that arises when a rising power challenges an established power.[8]

Strategist Edward Luttwak has argued that the rapid rise of a great power can naturally trigger balancing reactions from surrounding nations, illustrating what he calls the “logic of strategy” in geopolitics.[9]

Taiwan: The Silicon Island

Taiwan is not only a symbolic political issue. It is also one of the most important technological centers in the world. TSMC controls close to 70 percent of the global foundry market, according to TrendForce data reported in 2026 [3]

This matters because advanced semiconductors power the AI revolution, smartphones, data centers, defense systems, and much of the modern digital economy. A destructive war over Taiwan could damage not only Taiwan, but the global economy itself.

That is why a rational Chinese strategy may prefer winning Taiwan without firing a shot. Why destroy the treasure one hopes to possess? Why risk turning TSMC, Taiwan’s infrastructure, and human talent into ruins? In this sense, Sun Tzu’s famous principle still echoes: the highest form of victory is to subdue the opponent without fighting.”[5]

Yin and Yang in Strategy

Yet the metaphor should not become too simple. The United States does not only play chess, and China does not only play Go.

The United States has built long-term structures: NATO, the dollar-centered financial system, Silicon Valley, and a vast alliance network. These are not short-term moves. They are stones placed across generations.

China, on the other hand, can also act tactically and suddenly when opportunity appears. Its long-term Belt and Road strategy continues to evolve, with recent reporting showing renewed momentum and adaptation in 2025 and 2026 [4]

So both powers contain Yin and Yang. Patience can become pressure. Strength can become overconfidence. Flexibility can become inconsistency. Long-term planning can become rigidity.

Final Thought: A Vietnamese Memory

For me, this question is not only theoretical. I lived through the ending of the Vietnam War more than fifty years ago. The North won the war militarily, but winning a war is not the same as winning the hearts of people[10].

After 1975, Vietnam became one country again on the map. But in daily life, in memory, in families, and in the wounds carried by millions of people, reconciliation took much longer. Some wounds heal slowly. Some memories travel across oceans with the refugees who left. Some questions remain inside the children and grandchildren born far away from the homeland.

This is why I believe that if China truly wants Taiwan, war would be the poorest form of victory. A destroyed Taiwan would not be a real victory. A conquered people would not easily become a reconciled people. The better strategy, if wisdom still has a place in geopolitics, would be to avoid destruction and let time, trust, culture, and shared interest do what armies cannot.

Chess may win a battle. Go may shape a future. But the Tao reminds us that the deepest victory is balance: power without cruelty, patience without deception, and strength without destroying the very thing one hopes to preserve.

References

  1. Reuters. “Taiwan says it drove away Chinese research ship.” May 11, 2026.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-says-it-drove-away-chinese-research-ship-2026-05-11/

  2. Reuters. “Taiwan rejects China's energy-security reunification offer amid Middle East war.” March 19, 2026.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/taiwan-rejects-chinas-energy-security-reunification-offer-amid-middle-east-war-2026-03-19/

  3. TrendForce. “TSMC Maintains Dominance in Global Foundry Market.” 2026.
    https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260312-12965.html

  4. Reuters Breakingviews. “China’s resurgent Belt and Road is built to last.” May 6, 2026.
    https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/chinas-resurgent-belt-road-is-built-last-2026-05-06/

  5. Sun Tzu. The Art of War.
    Public domain translations widely available.

  6. Richard E. Nisbett. The Geography of Thought: How Asians and Westerners Think Differently... and Why.
    Free Press, 2003.

  7. Henry Kissinger. On China.
    Penguin Press, 2011.

  8. Graham Allison. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
    Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017.

  9. Edward Luttwak. The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy.
    Belknap Press, 2012.

  10. Personal reflections and historical memories of the author regarding the aftermath of the Vietnam War and the long process of reconciliation within the Vietnamese diaspora.

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