“Sell America”: When Capital Begins to Doubt

A macro view of how global investors quietly re-price U.S. assets amid shifting geopolitics, rising debt, and changing trust.

For most of modern financial history, one rule seemed unbreakable: when the world felt unsafe, money flowed to the United States. Wars, crises, recessions, pandemics. Again and again, investors sought shelter in the US dollar, US government bonds, and American markets. The dollar was not just a currency. It was confidence itself.

Today, that reflex is changing.

Quietly, without panic or drama, capital is beginning to hesitate. Investors are no longer running automatically toward America. Instead, they are spreading out, reassessing, and asking questions that once felt unnecessary. In the language of markets, this shift has a name: “Sell America.” ¹

“Sell America” does not mean abandoning the United States. It does not predict collapse. It describes something more subtle and more important: a change in trust. When investors sell America, they reduce their dependence on US assets and the US dollar, and increase exposure to gold, other currencies, and markets outside direct American control. It is not a political statement. It is a risk decision.

The reasons behind this shift are not hard to see. Recent years have brought rising geopolitical tensions, renewed trade threats, and a growing sense that economic tools are increasingly used as political weapons. When uncertainty comes from the very system that once provided stability, investors naturally begin to look for alternatives. The dollar, in such moments, stops acting as a universal safe haven and becomes one option among many.

Figure: Two opposing reserve trends in one year (illustrative): The rise of gold price and the decrease of USD against the Norwegian Krone (NOK)

The question of trust

One of the clearest signals of this doubt is the price of gold. Over the past year, gold has climbed to record levels, moving sharply higher as confidence in currencies weakened. Gold does not promise growth or income. It promises something else: independence from politics. When trust in rules, institutions, and predictability fades, gold quietly returns to its ancient role as a store of value. This is not driven only by private investors. Central banks themselves have been increasing their gold holdings, slowly reducing their reliance on the dollar system.

At the same time, the US dollar has weakened against a broad range of currencies, including the Norwegian krone. For investors outside the United States, this matters. A falling dollar reduces the value of US assets when measured in local currency terms. It also signals that holding dollars is no longer a one-way bet. Currency risk, once ignored, has returned to the conversation.

Yet “Sell America” has clear limits. The United States still hosts the deepest and most liquid financial markets in the world. There are few places capable of absorbing large global capital flows at short notice. Even countries that compete strategically with the US understand this reality. China, despite long-standing tensions, has never seriously attempted to dump its US assets. Doing so would damage its own reserves and destabilize the global financial system. Attacking the world’s reserve currency is not a victory. It is mutual harm.

The real consequence of “Sell America” is therefore not mass exit, but repricing. Investors begin to demand higher returns for holding US assets. Political risk is no longer ignored. Trust is no longer free. The dollar remains dominant, but it is no longer unquestioned. It moves from absolute certainty to conditional confidence.

Europe, the World, and America’s Debt: A Subtle Shift in Trust ²

“Sell America” is best understood not through individual investors, but through the broader relationship between U.S. public debt and its foreign creditors. With roughly $38 trillion in debt ³ and close to $1 trillion a year in interest payments, the United States is highly sensitive to long-term interest rates and global confidence. Foreign investors hold a significant share of this debt, with Japan as the largest creditor and Europe, including the Nordic countries, controlling a substantial portion of U.S. government bonds and financial assets.

This does not give Europe or other creditors a simple financial weapon. Most U.S. debt is held by private institutions, and any large-scale sell-off would damage creditors and destabilize global markets. The system is too interconnected for confrontation. Instead, what is taking place is quieter and more revealing. Over time, major creditors have begun to reduce their dependence on U.S. debt at the margin. China has halved its Treasury holdings over the past decade, Japan has slowed new purchases, and parts of Northern Europe have selectively stepped back.

These moves are modest in size but meaningful in signal. Pension funds and sovereign investors are built for stability, not speculation. When they begin to reassess even U.S. government bonds, it reflects not panic, but a measured re-pricing of trust. Political uncertainty and rising deficits are no longer ignored. They are calmly absorbed into returns.

This is the essence of “Sell America.” Capital is not fleeing the United States, but it is no longer offering automatic confidence. The dollar remains central, yet its privilege now carries conditions. Strength endures, but trust must be earned — and renewed.

The AI bubble?

This shift is unfolding at the same time as another source of unease: fears of an AI-driven stock market bubble. Artificial intelligence is a powerful and genuine technological force, but markets have a long history of confusing transformation with valuation. When excitement outruns earnings, corrections tend to follow. For investors, the combination of political uncertainty and valuation risk reinforces one simple lesson: concentration is dangerous.

In this environment, balance becomes a form of wisdom. Gold offers stability when confidence weakens. Stocks offer growth, but demand humility. Cash offers patience and flexibility, especially when held across more than one currency. None of these is sufficient alone. Together, they form resilience.

Final thought

From a Taoist perspective, this moment is not alarming. It is natural. Systems rise, mature, and invite correction. Extremes create their own counterweights. When certainty hardens into complacency, doubt quietly restores balance. The wise investor does not resist this movement. He adapts to it.

“Sell America” is not a call to fear the future. It is a reminder to respect it. Responsibility in investing does not mean predicting what comes next. It means preparing calmly for more than one path. In a world where trust shifts and cycles turn, balance is not weakness. It is strength.

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References

1. Cecilie Langum Becker, «Sell America» er tilbake, NRK.NO, 2026. Source ↩
2. Tạp chí kinh tế, 3.800 tỷ đô la nợ, huyệt hiểm của Hoa Kỳ, RFI, 27/01/2026 - 14:57. Source ↩
3. Doug Melville, With The U.S. Debt A Staggering $38 Trillion Dollars, Who Exactly Do We Owe?, Forbes, Jan 04, 2026, 11:14am EST. Source ↩