Saturday, July 26, 2025

English-version

English Tiếng Việt

 Saigon – A Name of Memory and Hope


Saigon, a name deeply intertwined with the memories and soul of millions of Vietnamese people, has witnessed more than 300 years of historical turbulence. According to cultural researcher Vương Hồng Sển, the name Saigon may have originated from the Khmer word Prey Nokor, meaning “city in the forest”, when the area was still a wild land under the control of Chenla (Chân Lạp).

In the late 17th century, when Nguyễn Hữu Cảnh was sent by Lord Nguyễn to the South (in 1698), he established the first administrative structures in the region, marking the beginning of the Vietnamization of the southern territories. The name Gia Định appeared in official documents, but among the people, the name Saigon remained more commonly used. Vương Hồng Sển suggested that “Saigon” might have been a Vietnamized pronunciation of the Khmer word or derived from the Cantonese term “Tai-Ngon” (堤岸), which referred to the Chợ Lớn (Big Market) area.

Under French colonial rule, Saigon became the administrative, economic, and cultural center of Southern Vietnam. Through the colonial era and the First and Second Republics of Vietnam, Saigon was more than just a place name — it was a symbol of prosperity, openness, and urban civility.

After April 30, 1975, Saigon was officially renamed Ho Chi Minh City. Though the new name was formalized, in the hearts of the people, “Saigon” still lived on — in songs, in poems, and in the tender way people spoke of their city.

Recently, under a national plan to restructure administrative boundaries, the government of Vietnam proposed merging Ho Chi Minh City with surrounding provinces such as Bình Dương and Bà Rịa – Vũng Tàu, to form a mega urban region. Within this plan, the original urban core is expected to be renamed “Saigon Ward.”

After 50 years, the name Saigon has returned — albeit only as a ward — yet it is a small but meaningful step. It opens the possibility that one day, the name Saigon may be restored to its rightful place — not just as a name on a map, but as a cultural and historical emblem.

Saigon – A City of the Heart, of Music, and of Poetry

To me, Saigon is my youth. It is the days of riding a bicycle down long streets lined with tamarind trees, autumn leaves drifting gently onto my hair.
It is the image of a petite French girl in a short skirt, her voice chirping like a bird.
It is the graceful áo dài worn by Trưng Vương schoolgirls in the golden hue of late afternoon.
It is the flutter in my chest each time the girl next door walks past my house after school.
It is a tender nostalgia, a wistful longing that no words can name.

Saigon is architecture 

— once hailed as the Pearl of the Far East, a little Paris in the Orient:


Among its most iconic landmarks are: (from left to right): Notre-Dame Cathedral, the Central Post Office, Bến Thành Market, the Museum of Fine Arts, the statues of Trần Hưng Đạo and Thánh Gióng. According to the book Urban Landscapes of Saigon – Cholon by artist Phạm Công Tâm

Saigon is not just a place on the map

It is music, it is poetry,
It is a melody steeped in love, filled with longing, echoing through time.

🎵 "Saigon is So Beautiful" – Composer Y Vân

“Stopping at the quay when the afternoon sunlight still lingers,
From afar, the fluttering áo dài softly dances in the breeze…”



Explanation:
This joyful song paints Saigon as vibrant and romantic. The image of girls in áo dài (Vietnamese traditional dress) flowing gently in the breeze represents elegance, freedom, and youthful beauty. For many, it is a nostalgic postcard of a peaceful Saigon in the 1960s.


🎵 "Stopping by the Saigon Pier" – Composer Văn Phụng

“Beloved capital of a free Vietnam,
People from North, Central, and South, together as one family…”



Explanation:
Written before 1975, this song celebrates Saigon as the capital of a free South Vietnam, where people from all regions of the country came together. It radiates hope, unity, and pride in a homeland before the fall of Saigon.


🎵 "Farewell, Saigon" – Composer Nam Lộc

“Saigon, I have lost someone from my life...
Smiles shattered on lips, tears so bitter...”



Explanation:
A deeply emotional farewell song written by a refugee, this piece captures the heartbreak of losing not only a city but an entire life, an identity, a homeland. It speaks for millions of Vietnamese who left Saigon after the war, often by boat, with no promise of return.


🎵 "Do You Still Remember or Have You Forgotten?" – Composer Trịnh Công Sơn

“Remember Saigon – where rain comes, then suddenly sunshine.
Remember old streets that know even the names of our footsteps…”



Explanation:
This poetic ballad by legendary composer Trịnh Công Sơn speaks to a lost love and a lost city. With its lyrical contrasts of rain and sunshine, it reflects Saigon’s unpredictable charm, and the ache of remembering a past that may no longer exist.


🎵 "Do You Still Remember Spring?" – Composer Ngô Thụy Miên

“None compare to Saigon yesterday,
None compare to Saigon tomorrow…”



Explanation:
Though one may visit Paris, Vienna, or London, no foreign city can replace the memory and dream of Saigon. The song expresses a yearning not just for a city, but for youth, for home, for a spring that once bloomed and may bloom again.


📝 "The Hà Đông Silk Áo Dài" – Poem by Nguyên Sa, music by Ngô Thụy Miên

“Saigon sunshine felt cool as I passed,
Because you wore the Hà Đông silk áo dài...”



Explanation:
This line captures how love transforms even the heat of a tropical city into something gentle and soothing. The áo dài, flowing and poetic, becomes a symbol of Vietnamese femininity and grace — and the girl who wears it becomes unforgettable.

Can the Name Return?

Like Leningrad becoming again Saint Petersburg, Stalingrad changing back to Volgograd, could Saigon one day reclaim its name fully?

No one knows. But in memory, in song, in the hearts of those who lived it, Saigon never left. Thus, its name will forever live on.




Thursday, July 10, 2025

"The Art of the Deal" and a Lesson in Unequal Bargaining - Mục tử Hoàng

English Tiếng Việt

From the negotiation perspective of Donald Trump—famous for his book “The Art of the Deal”—the tariff agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam can be seen as a textbook example of how a superpower applies pressure and reshapes global economic order, in which Vietnam finds itself both with opportunities and risks.


“Starting High – Pretending to Compromise”: The Traditional Seller’s Trick

Trump’s demand for a retaliatory tariff of up to 46%, later “reduced” to 20%, made Vietnam feel like it had dodged a major blow. But this is a classic bargaining strategy—exactly like the way sellers inflate prices in traditional Vietnamese markets: a product worth 50 dong is quoted at 120, and when the buyer negotiates it down to 60 (50%), the seller still profits.

Vietnamese people are familiar with this bargaining style, so it’s easy to feel like they’ve “won.” But in reality, Vietnam was the one that conceded the most—if we look at the actual terms of the deal.

Deadline Pressure: Trump Needed a Political “Show”

Vietnam was one of the few countries to conclude negotiations before July 9. Trump fully exploited this outcome to flaunt a “foreign policy victory.”

Vietnam was turned into a “model example” to pressure other countries—a political win for Trump, but not necessarily a substantive win for Vietnam, especially when examining the commitments made.

"0% Tariffs" – A Knockout Blow to Domestic Industry

The commitment to reduce tariffs to 0% on many U.S. imports could seriously harm Vietnam’s fledgling industries, such as electric vehicles (VinFast), pharmaceuticals, and processed foods.

Usually, developing nations selectively open their markets—maintaining high tariffs on industries that need protection, while lowering tariffs for sectors needing investment. Vietnam, however, nearly opened its market entirely, potentially “suffocating” domestic businesses on home soil.

You Can’t Claim Victory Without Comparing to Competitors

Vietnam should wait to see the U.S. tariff rates applied to its trade rivals like Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Laos before declaring a “victory.” If those countries—Vietnam’s direct competitors in textiles, agriculture, and wood exports—receive similar or lower tariffs, Vietnam’s advantage would diminish.

Declaring victory without a comprehensive comparison is unfounded and risky in the long term.

The Dark Side of "Made in Vietnam" – But Also a Strategic Opportunity

The U.S. announced it will impose tariffs up to 40% on “Made in Vietnam” goods if found to actually originate from China or other countries trying to avoid U.S. tariffs. This is a clear warning against “disguised transshipment,” forcing Vietnam to tighten rules of origin management.

However, the positive side is: many Chinese (or Korean, in Samsung's case) companies may be forced to truly invest and manufacture in Vietnam to legally use the “Made in Vietnam” label. This could:

  • Increase FDI into Vietnam

  • Create jobs

  • Transfer manufacturing technology

  • Boost real GDP growth—if Vietnam properly manages supply chains and origin rules

In short, it’s a double-edged sword: well-managed, it brings dual benefits; poorly managed, it risks U.S. sanctions and damage to trade credibility.

“Shaking the Tree to Scare the Monkeys” – Weak Response to Pressure

Compared to China, which is experienced and capable of countermeasures, Vietnam remains weak in negotiation posture and resources. Against an aggressive, intimidating counterpart like Trump, Vietnam tends to cave too early, lacking long-term strategic defense.

“Greasing the Diplomacy” with the Trump Brand – “Clever” and Timely

Vietnam moved quickly and smartly to use the Trump brand for diplomatic gain by:

  • Fast-tracking a license for Trump Organization to partner with Kinh bac City Group to build a golf resort and hotel in Hung Yen (Tô Lâm’s hometown)
    • Investment scale: ~$1.5 billion (among 3–4 long-term projects), over 990 hectares (~2,000 acres)

    • Groundbreaking in May 2025 with Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính, Eric Trump, and local officials in attendance


  • Approving the Trump Tower project in Thu Thiem, Ho Chi Minh City – at least 60 stories tall, ~$1 billion investment, the only Trump-branded tower in Southeast Asia

    • Eric Trump visited the site and met with HCMC authorities during his trip


  • According to DW and SCMP, the Hung Yen golf project was fast-tracked “ahead of normal procedures” as part of a plan to win Trump’s favor during intense negotiations


  • AP News confirmed the Vietnamese government approved the $1.5 billion project via a document signed by PM Phạm Minh Chính—part of a gesture of goodwill toward Trump

Vietnam Opens Doors to Starlink – A Wise Tech and Political Move

Vietnam also allowed Elon Musk’s Starlink to operate starting in 2025, as reported by TechCrunch, Nikkei Asia, and Reuters. This is notable because:

  • Elon Musk was politically and publicly aligned with Donald Trump, especially on platform X (formerly Twitter), where he openly supports conservative, anti-tax views

  • Starlink struggled to get licensed in many countries with tight information controls—but Vietnam opened up quickly, even ahead of Thailand and Indonesia

  • Starlink’s satellite internet will benefit remote areas—but the decision is more political than technical

Rare Earths – A Strategic Advantage and Investment Promise for the U.S.

In the trade war with China, rare earths became a geopolitical weapon. Vietnam quickly tied this into its negotiations:

  • Under Trump, the U.S. lowered tariffs on Vietnamese goods to 20% while imposing 40% on Chinese goods rerouted through Vietnam

  • More importantly, Vietnam promised to allow U.S. investment and extraction of minerals—especially rare earths—to leverage its strategic potential

    • China had previously used rare earth export restrictions as a retaliatory tool during U.S. trade tensions

Conclusion

The Vietnam–U.S. trade agreement under Trump isn't just about tariffs—it's a game of power and strategy. The U.S. used pressure tactics to achieve its goals, while Vietnam responded with a series of flexible, timely moves: rolling out the red carpet for the Trump Organization, Starlink, and rare earth pledges. These actions go beyond economics—they are political messages showing Vietnam’s willingness to cooperate in a new geopolitical chessboard.

However, long-term results will depend on Vietnam’s ability to manage risks, avoid dependency, and protect national credibility. This is a “real-world lesson” for Vietnam in upgrading its negotiation power and industrial policy in a globally competitive era.

Don’t rush to declare victory—stay alert and work to build lasting strength.


Update (12 July 2025)

Vietnam thought it had agreed on an 11% U.S. tariff; Trump abruptly declared it at 20%, or 40% for re‑exported Chinese‑origin goods during a July 2 call with Vietnam’s General Secretary Tô Lâm. The unilateral announcement surprised Hanoi and caused confusion, as no formal agreement had been signed. Trump also stated that U.S. exports to Vietnam would enter duty‑free. Analysts warn this unpredictability undermines U.S. credibility and could threaten future trade negotiations, as Vietnam and other countries recalibrate their trust in Washington (worldview.stratfor.com).

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