“When trust replaces gold, faith itself becomes the currency.”
1. A Historic Decision
In 2004, Norges Bank decided to sell almost all of Norway’s gold reserves — around 33.5 tonnes — through the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
At the time, gold was considered outdated, costly to store, and less liquid than bonds or foreign currencies.
Two decades later, with gold prices having multiplied many times since, that sale is now being called by Norwegian economists and media a “historisk tabbe” (historic blunder). (NRK.no)
2. Trust and the Changing Safe Havens
As the NRK article notes, today’s global monetary system is built on trust. For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been considered risk-free and the U.S. dollar the world’s primary reserve currency.
But geopolitical uncertainty, rising U.S. debt, and declining investor confidence have started to shift that perception.
"Stadig flere investorer ser for seg mulige worst case-scenarioer... Det kan bli en katastrofe for et land som ikke har gullreserver." – Espen Haug, finansanalytiker, NRK 2025
This marks a subtle but important transition — away from pure trust in paper assets, and back toward tangible stores of value like gold (and perhaps, in a digital form, Bitcoin).
3. When Money Printing Becomes the Only Option
Haug raises a sobering question in the NRK piece:
«Hva skjer dersom ikke mange nok vil låne USA penger til å finansiere den enorme gjelda?»His answer: the Federal Reserve would have to print money to buy its own government debt. That would lead to high inflation and an inevitable flight toward real assets like gold.
In other words: if the U.S. debt machine runs out of foreign lenders, the Fed becomes the buyer of last resort. Confidence breaks, inflation rises — and investors “smell blood,” as Haug put it.
4. Norway’s Vulnerability
As of the end of 2024, Norway’s total currency reserves stood at about 800 billion NOK. In addition, the Government Pension Fund Global (Oljefondet) holds more than 20,000 billion NOK in stocks, bonds, and properties — mostly denominated in U.S. dollars.
If the dollar weakens, both our reserves and our wealth shrink. And if a “worst-case” scenario unfolds — a global dollar crisis or runaway inflation — Norway, without any gold reserves, could find itself without a solid hedge.
Historian Ola Grytten told NRK that even if Norway had kept its gold, it would today only represent about 5% of reserves. Still, that small percentage could mean psychological and strategic stability — a reminder that tangible value still matters when trust erodes.
5. Global Trends — The East Moves Away from the Dollar
Recent financial data confirm that major economies are gradually diversifying away from U.S. Treasuries:
- China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries to about $765 billion in early 2025 — the lowest level since 2009. (Reuters, May 2025)
- Japan remains the largest foreign holder (~$1.13 trillion), but policymakers have publicly discussed the possibility of trimming positions to defend the yen. (Reuters, May 2025)
This gradual de-dollarization trend is slow but real. It reflects a changing perception of what is “safe.” In the quantum sense — it’s the Yin of uncertainty balancing the Yang of confidence.
6. The Worst-Case Scenario
If foreign investors retreat from U.S. debt and the Federal Reserve becomes a captive arm of the White House — printing to finance political promises — the world could face a confidence shock. The likely outcomes:
- High U.S. inflation and a weaker dollar
- Flight to gold, commodities, and possibly Bitcoin (“digital gold”)
- Volatile stock markets and global capital shifts
- Pressure on small economies, like Norway, heavily tied to USD-based reserves
That is the “Yin” side of global finance — the shadow that emerges when too much light is placed on paper wealth.
7. The Tao of Quantum Reflection
From the Tao of Quantum perspective, every decision — even one made in good faith — contains its duality. Selling the gold might have seemed rational under the Yang of trust and prosperity, but the Yin — uncertainty, inflation, and loss of tangible anchors — now begins to appear.
Perhaps the deeper lesson is not about gold itself, but about balance. When one side of the equation — faith — dominates, the universe eventually restores harmony through reality.
📚 Sources
- NRK.no – «Solgte gullet – historisk tabbe av Norges Bank», Oct 2025.
- Reuters – Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries top $9 trillion (May 2025).
- Reuters – Japan likely held off U.S. Treasury sales (May 2025).
- Finansavisen – Kina selger amerikansk statsgjeld – laveste nivå siden 2009.
- Econofact.org – How immune is the Federal Reserve from political pressure?
© 2025 Dave H. Huynh — The Tao of Quantum Finance Blog
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