From Japan and South Korea to China’s Made in China 2025 — and Vietnam’s Next Development Leap

This article offers a high-level overview of how Japan, South Korea, and China achieved industrial success — and how Vietnam can learn from the past to escape the middle-income trap and become Southeast Asia’s next growth powerhouse.

To understand where Vietnam may be heading, we must first look to history. Development is never random. Countries that successfully moved from poverty to prosperity followed clear patterns, adapted them to their own circumstances, and acted decisively while time was still on their side. History does not repeat itself, but it leaves behind a map. 

The Economic Miracle of East Asia — Will Vietnam Become the Next Dragon?

Lessons from Japan, South Korea and China

After World War II, Japan rebuilt itself through discipline, education, and long-term industrial planning. In its early years, “Made in Japan” was associated with cheap copies. Over time, through relentless focus on quality and learning, it became a global symbol of reliability and precision. Japan showed that patience, coordination, and human capital could transform a nation. 

South Korea followed a similar but faster path. The state supported large industrial groups, but support came with strict conditions. Export performance was the ultimate test. Companies that failed lost backing, while those that succeeded became global champions. Korea proved that government guidance and market competition could work together when discipline and accountability were enforced. 

China’s rise came later, but on an entirely different scale. In 2015, it launched the "Made in China 2025"¹ strategy with a clear goal: move from low-cost manufacturing to higher value, technology-driven industry. Not every target was fully achieved by 2025, especially in advanced semiconductors, but the deeper transformation succeeded.² The meaning of “Made in China” changed. China became central to global supply chains, dominant in batteries and rare-earth processing, strong in electric vehicles, robotics, and applied artificial intelligence. Even under tariffs and technology restrictions, China adapted, rerouted trade, and recorded record export surpluses.³ Pressure did not stop the system; it strengthened its resilience. 

Today, China is no longer merely catching up. It is a system builder. Its strength lies not only in innovation, but in infrastructure, scale, and supply-chain depth. Trade wars revealed a simple truth: policies can change quickly, but industrial ecosystems cannot be moved overnight. 

Vietnam’s advantages and challenges

Vietnam stands at a different but promising point on the development ladder. With a population of more than 100 million, it still benefits from a relatively young workforce. Yet fertility rates are falling, and the warning is real: Vietnam risks growing old before becoming rich.⁴ The demographic window is narrowing, and time matters.

Culturally, Vietnam shares with China, Japan, and South Korea a Confucian tradition that values education, discipline, and learning. Families invest heavily in their children, and social mobility through effort is still widely believed. This cultural capital is a powerful advantage that cannot be imported later. 

Geopolitically, Vietnam is well positioned. It maintains constructive relations with major powers and is not viewed as a strategic rival. In a world seeking to diversify supply chains, Vietnam is increasingly seen as a stable and pragmatic alternative. 

Vietnam’s future, however, will be decided by choices, not potential. Infrastructure must move faster and more decisively. Roads, ports, logistics, and cities must be built ahead of demand, not behind it. Electricity is a critical bottleneck. No advanced manufacturing economy tolerates unstable power. Clean energy, grid modernization, and long-term energy planning are no longer optional; they are requirements. 

The private sector must be allowed to breathe. State ownership is not the problem; micromanagement is. Successful models show that governments can own strategic assets while leaving daily decisions to professional management.⁵ At the same time, bureaucracy must be reduced. Capital does not protest loudly. It simply goes elsewhere. 

Will Vietnam escape the middle-income trap, or will it become the next dragon or tiger of Southeast Asia? History offers guidance but no guarantees. Japan perfected craftsmanship. South Korea perfected discipline. China perfected scale. Vietnam’s opportunity is to perfect balance: openness without loss of control, speed without chaos, growth without environmental exhaustion. 

In the end, development is like water flowing through a landscape. It does not rise by force. It advances where channels are clear and obstacles are removed. Vietnam does not need to rush blindly forward. It needs wisdom, responsibility, and balance — and the courage to act while time is still generous. ---

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Notes & References

1. Made in China 2025 was launched in 2015 to upgrade China’s manufacturing sector, reduce dependence on foreign technology, and build globally competitive industrial capabilities. Council on Foreign Relations.
2. Made in China 2025 — assessment by 2025 . Analysis of achievements and remaining gaps across key sectors. Rhodium Group.
3. China recorded a record trade surplus of around USD 1.2 trillion in 2025, reflecting strong exports despite tariffs and geopolitical pressure. Reuters.
4. “Chưa giàu mà đã già” is a Vietnamese phrase describing the risk of a country aging before achieving prosperity, referring to declining fertility and the narrowing demographic window.
5. Equinor illustrates the Nordic state-ownership model, where the Norwegian government is a majority shareholder while leaving day-to-day management to professional leadership. Equinor.